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04-Oct-2017 07:15

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The panic about resource constraints that prevailed during the 1970s and 1980s, when the population was rising through the steep part of the S-curve, has given way to a new concern: that the number of people in the world is likely to start falling.

Some regard this as a cause for celebration, on the ground that there are obviously too many people on the planet. There doesn't seem to be much danger of a Malthusian catastrophe.

If the world's population does not look like rising or shrinking to unmanageable levels, surely governments can watch its progress with equanimity? Adjusting to decline poses problems, which three areas of the world—central and eastern Europe, from Germany to Russia; the northern Mediterranean; and parts of East Asia, including Japan and South Korea—are already facing.

Think of twentysomethings as a single workforce, the best educated there is.

Demographers expect the global population to peak at around 10 billion (it is now 6.5 billion) by mid-century.

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The projections suggest a flattening off and then a slight decline in the foreseeable future.

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